01 / EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
What the evidence
establishes.
OLAF traced and analysed a cross-border route distributing more than 200,000 counterfeit condoms bearing the name and logo of a well-known brand.
Validated Presence IncidentScore 85 / CRITICAL
More than 200,000 counterfeit condoms entered European distribution
What the evidence
02 / WHAT HAPPENED
From accepted signal
to real consequence.
OLAF traced and analysed a cross-border route distributing more than 200,000 counterfeit condoms bearing the name and logo of a well-known brand.
Four stages.
One missing boundary.
The chain distinguishes what appeared valid, what was physically true, which authority followed and what consequence the source documents.
What appeared valid.
Branding, packaging and sales presentation claimed the products were genuine protective products from an established manufacturer.
What was present.
OLAF identified untested, uncontrolled counterfeit products from a common source in China.
What proceeded.
The products were sold in Europe and accepted for use as health-protection devices.
What the source records.
OLAF warned of sexually transmitted infection exposure and placed original-market value above EUR 200,000; no individual case count was reported.
MISSING TRUST BOUNDARY / 4SI ANALYSIS
Unit- or batch-level verification connecting the physical product to manufacturer and quality evidence.
Evidence before
false precision.
ECR separates a documented monetary floor from a modeled social and economic consequence envelope. It is not an accounting loss figure.
MODELED CONSEQUENCE RANGE
$43.7K–$396K
$131KCentral modeled position · USD equivalent
UNCERTAINTY
The range combines documented facts with calibrated consequence and response-cost assumptions; it is not an accounting loss figure.
Source fact and inference
remain separate.
Volumes, route and stated hazards are OLAF facts. 4SI supplies the missing-boundary analysis.
CONNECTION TO THE PRESENCE THESIS
Brand identity created an expectation of tested physical protection that the actual objects could not substantiate.
ANALYTICAL LIMITATION
4SI does not claim to have independently verified the underlying event. Scores, boundary analysis and economic ranges interpret published evidence; they are not probabilities, compliance findings, valuations or loss forecasts.
The same boundary,
different context.
Related cases are editorially connected by domain, authority pattern or missing physical trust boundary.
FROM EVIDENCE TO CONTROLPresence belongs at the